With just over a month to go until the 2023 Eurovision final on May 13, the 37 competing songs have already been made public, and their promoters are in hot pursuit of viewers’ votes. This encouraged our team to study the audience preferences by checking which countries are the current favourites.
According to bookmakers, Sweden is the clear leader, with a massive advantage over the other contenders. The Scandinavian country’s chances to take home the coveted trophy yet again, are estimated at 50%, while Finland, in second place, has a mere 16.7% probability of winning.
Eurovision 2023 Top Favorites
Sweden – 2.0 average odds (50% implied probability)
Loreen, a former Eurovision winner (2012), will represent Sweden at the M&S Bank Arena in Liverpool. She will perform her new song “Tattoo” and try to win a historic 7th victory for her country. Interestingly, she initially declined to take part in the contest, and needed 4 weeks to change her mind.
Finland – 6.0 average odds (16.7% implied probability)
Although Finland was not among the top favourites a month ago, it has managed to climb the ladder and now ranks 2nd behind Sweden. Käärijä, a Helsinki-born eccentric rapper, and his “Cha Cha Cha” song has accumulated over 3 million views on YouTube and currently has odds averaging 6.0.
Ukraine – 7.5 average odds (13.3% implied probability)
According to bookmakers, there is a 13.3% probability of Ukraine scoring a back-to-back victory in Liverpool. The country is represented by the TVORCHI duo and their song “Heart of Steel” which aims to warn about the dangers of nuclear warfare. Except for three lines in the second verse, the song is performed in English, most probably to draw a global fan base.
Norway – 13.0 average odds (7.7% implied probability)
The fourth position, according to the current Eurovision 2023 Winner betting odds, is held by Norway. However, there is a considerable gap between artist Alessandra and the top three favourites. The chances of her winning with the song “Queen of Kings” are estimated at 7.7%.
Spain – 21.0 average odds (4.8% implied probability)
Until recently, Spain was out of the Top 5, with odds fluctuating between 23.0 and 26.0. However, the charismatic Blanca Paloma has considerably increased her fan base over the past few weeks, and this has affected the odds of her winning. “Eaea” is one of the few contributions this year that are deeply infused with the respective country’s culture while also sounding modern.
“Given that the semifinal results will be determined solely by the global public vote this year, Eurovision betting odds are more relevant than ever. What is more, for the first time in the contest’s history, voting is now open to non-participating countries (eg. the US), which presents quite a challenge for the bookmakers. Currently, Sweden’s advantage seems insuperable, but odds tend to change as time progresses. Stay tuned for an update on the eve of Eurovision 2023.”
Eurovision 2023 Songs’ Popularity According to Google Trends
Google searches are a good indicator of popularity that can be used for a wealth of things – celebrities, politicians, foods, websites, and many more. Google Trends, in particular, is a free tool that can be used to analyze the popularity of Google search terms. So, using Google Trends, our team compared the popularity of the five Eurovision contenders with the highest odds of winning according to bookmakers.
We checked the term “Eurovision 2023” followed by the name of each country, namely Sweden, Finland, Ukraine, Norway, and Spain, and found that the most searched entry is the Swedish one. Loreen’s song is followed by Alessandra and her “Queen of Kings” (Norway), Finnish rapper Käärijä with “Cha Cha Cha”, the Ukranian duo Tvorchi with their song “Heart of Steel”, and the Spanish “Eaea” by Blanca Paloma.
The Public’s Favourite Eurovision 2023 Contenders
Another, arguably even more important clue than the odds and the Google search results, is the popularity of the songs and the artists on social media. In this digital age, popularity means popularity on the Internet. In order to identify the public’s favourite Eurovision contenders, our team examined the number of YouTube and TikTok views of each entry, its Spotify streams, as well as performers’ number of YouTube subscribers and Instagram followers.
Note that this research took place between 22 April and 26 April, a week after the official digital release of the Eurovision Song Contest: Liverpool 2023 compilation album of the contest. The number of views and streams will change with time but the results from the research are a good indicator of how a song will perform in the following weeks.
Best Performing Eurovision 2023 Songs on YouTube
For this metric, we considered the videos of the 37 songs on the official Eurovision channel rather than the ones uploaded by the artists or the National Final videos. The most viewed videos are as follows:
Armenia | Brunette – “Future Lover” 5.1M Views
Following Rosa Linn’s commercial success with her “Snap” after Eurovision 2022 (the song ended up in the 20th position last year), Armenia has decided to introduce yet another young and interesting artist to the Eurovision audience. Although the entry is nowhere near the top favourites with bookmakers, it has won the hearts of the YouTube community. The official video is quickly gaining popularity on the platform, with hundreds of YouTubers also reacting to “Future Lover”.
Sweden | Loreen – “Tattoo” 3.9M Views
Widely considered to be the most likely winner of this year’s Eurovision song contest, Loreen and her new song are still way behind the Armenian contender. At least when it comes to YouTube views.
Israel | Noa Kirel – “Unicorn” 3.6M Views
Over the years, Israel has had a large number of successful participants in Eurovision and has won four times, the latest one being Netta’s unforgettable “Toy” in 2018. Judging by the number of views on YouTube, the nation’s new contender Noa Kirel and her song “Unicorn” will probably finish at least in the top 10 in the contest.
France | La Zarra – “Évidemment” 3.4M Views
Released on 19 February, La Zarra’s “Évidemment” has grown in popularity in the past few weeks. Currently, the song is the fourth most viewed Eurovision 2023’s official video and has the potential to grow even more. We should not forget that France has won the contest five times, having the same number of victories as Luxembourg, the UK, and the Netherlands.
United Kingdom | Mae Muller – “I Wrote a Song” 2.4M Views
The United Kingdom was one of the last countries to submit their song but maybe this was a strategic move. Mae Muller and her “I Wrote a Song” are among the most watched Eurovision entries for 2023 on YouTube.
Top Streamed Eurovision 2023 Songs on Spotify
The number of Spotify streams for all 37 entries from the Eurovision Song Contest 2023 was checked on 26 April. According to the data, the most played songs from the official playlist of the contest are:
Italy | Marco Mengoni – “Due Vite” 44.5M Streams
It should come as no surprise that the Italian song “Due Vite” is currently the most popular entry in terms of Spotify streams. Marco Mengoni is among the most popular pop stars in Italy right now after winning the third season of Italian talent show X Factor back in 2009. Then, he won the Sanremo Music Festival in 2013 and in 2023, and now, his song is more popular on the streaming platform than that of Loreen, which is quite an accomplishment in itself.
Sweden | Loreen – “Tattoo” 43M Streams
Loreen’s fame and appeal among Eurovision fans do not seem to be fading. Compared to other contenders, she is widely popular on all social media sites and streaming platforms, including Spotify. Of course, just like Marco Mengoni, Loreen is a well-established music star with thousands of fans.
Norway | Alessandra – “Queen of Kings” 38.2M Streams
The Norwegian entry this year, Alessandra with her powerful anthem-like “Queen of Kings”, is also among the favourites to win the contest. Even if it does not get to the number one spot, the song will definitely remain one of the best women’s power songs in Eurovision history.
Finland | Käärijä – “Cha Cha Cha” 15.5M Streams
Käärijä is not only among the bookmakers’ favourites to win this year but also one of the most popular Eurovision contenders on social media. Although the song’s official video on YouTube has a little over a million views, the National Final video has amassed more than 3 million views. On Spotify, the song has been streamed more than 15 million times.
United Kingdom | Mae Muller – “I Wrote a Song” 6M Streams
If Spotify plays are any indication of a song’s popularity and how it would perform in the Eurovision Song Contest, then Brit Mae Muller certainly has a chance of appearing among the top 10 or possibly even the top 5 songs in the Finals. Still, “I Wrote a Song” is lagging behind the Finnish entry – the difference between the two is nearly 10 million streams.