Naturally, punters want to make sure that they will perform at the highest level, and in order to achieve this, they need to know the sport they are betting on inside out. When they want to get the best out of their betting session, gambling enthusiasts tend to focus heavily on the various betting strategies that are touted as a guarantee of success, and as it seems, value betting is considered the most profitable betting strategy, especially when the long-term results are concerned.
What Is NFL Value BettingGaining a proper understanding of the concept of value is a must for sports bettors, but as it seems, this is among the most challenging tasks for up-and-coming and casual bettors. Yet, taking their time to learn the ropes about value will work to their advantage as this strategy will help them get an edge over bookmakers.
Finding value is rarely possible right off the bat and detecting such betting opportunities requires lots of knowledge, dedication, and time, which is what usually puts off most sports bettors.
What Is NFL Value Betting
If NFL bettors want to guarantee themselves long-term success, they should make sure that they have a thorough understanding of the sport they want to bet on, which includes the teams, players, coaches, along with the different bet types, the way odds work, as well as how to find value.
What sets seasoned NFL bettors apart from the rest of the gambling enthusiasts is that they know the difference between the teams’ chances of winning and their chances of winning as opposed to the betting odds. In simple terms, value betting is the ability to identify the bets that give punters an edge over bookmakers and turn these situations to their advantage. Thus, in order to be a successful NFL bettor, you need to always look for bets that offer value and place them, no matter how likely or unlikely their outcome might seem.
Naturally, uncovering betting opportunities that are more likely to happen than odds suggest is not a walk in the park as such opportunities do not occur every step of the way. Contrary to what some gambling enthusiasts might consider, value betting is not all about looking at the odds of the favorite. Even though this might seem like a smart decision because the favorite stands a better chance to win than to lose, gambling enthusiasts should keep in mind that bets placed on the favorite will not necessarily offer value.
So what punters should learn is how to evaluate the probability of each outcome as accurately as possible in order to find value in the situations when the market is out of line. Constantly looking for value might be something even seasoned punters might find challenging to adjust to, and developing a sense of it undoubtedly takes time and effort.
How Can NFL Bettors Identify Value
NFL bettors should remember that value can be either positive or negative, and in order to make the most out of their wagers, they should learn how to recognize the different types.
- NFL bets with positive value – Bets have a positive value when the probability of winning is greater than the odds suggest. In other words, if punters stand a better chance to win their bet than odds indicate, they have found positive value.
- NFL bets with negative value – Bets have a negative value when the probability of winning is smaller than the odds suggest.
As punters might expect, in order to enjoy more lucrative results, they should look out for bets that have a positive value. Thus, gambling enthusiasts can be sure that they have found a bet, which offers value, provided that its odds do not represent the probability of the outcome occurring accurately. It is important to note that, on many occasions, neither side of the betting market will offer positive value. The best thing NFL bettors can do under these circumstances is to refrain from placing that bet and look for another option.
It is a must for NFL bettors to learn how to assess the implied probability of the bets in order to evaluate whether they offer negative or positive value because bets that have positive value are the ones that will be profitable in the long run. Although punters should keep their eyes wide open for such betting opportunities, they should keep in mind that this does not mean that such bets will be winning every step of the way.
Identifying value while wagering on the NFL is not that simple, not only because of the calculations punters will be required to make. Determining the value their bet of choice offers is a two-step process, which involves focusing on the probability of the outcome and how it measures up to the implied probability.
No matter how much experience punters have, it is not possible to say for sure how a game will play out, which is the reason why it is practically unattainable to determine with certainty the probability of each outcome with certainty. The best thing NFL bettors can do in order to make their assessments as accurate as possible is to constantly expand their knowledge and, most importantly, to learn how to carry out their research effectively. In order for punters to come to grips with value betting, they should also fully understand probability, odds, and overround.
While looking for betting opportunities that offer value, punters should also pay due attention to the carefully worded terms of the NFL platforms. Before they start making real-money bets, gambling enthusiasts should always examine the fine print in order to figure out in such situations the operator might wriggle out of paying.
In order for punters to determine whether value betting is worthwhile, we will provide an example. Let’s assume that punters want to place a bet on a game in which the Los Angeles Rams are playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the odds one of the NFL betting sites have introduced look like this:
| Los Angeles Rams | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 1.30 | 2.00 |
In this scenario, if gambling enthusiasts decide to stake $10 on the Los Angeles Rams, their potential returns will be $13. Staking the same amount on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will potentially result in a payout of $20. Obviously, betting on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is the option punters might find more appealing because of the larger payout a correct pick will bring them. Yet, it is not enough for punters to merely compare the odds or the payouts each side offers in order to figure out whether there is value or not.
An important thing NFL bettors should be aware of is that while designing odds, bookmakers use statistics, models, and factors, among others. Thus, many punters dive into placing real money guided exclusively by the handsome payouts they will be in for without paying attention to the implied probability.
Implied Probability
As likely as not, punters might be wondering what the relationship between odds and probability is. When betting on sports is concerned, the probability is displayed through percentages, and it is used to describe how likely an event to happen is. In the context of sports betting, the probability reflected by the odds is also referred to as implied probability. Knowing how to convert betting odds into implied probability is a must for gambling aficionados because, in this way, they will be able to figure out whether the preferred market offers value.
Thus, if the probability is 100%, the event will certainly happen, while 0 means that the event will not come about. It is important to note that the implied probability takes into account the bookmakers’ margin.
In order for NFL bettors to determine the implied probability of the wager they are about to make, they will be required to divide 1 by the odds. In order for punters to reduce the chances to miscalculate the numbers, it is advisable to make use of the decimal odds display.
1 / Odds
The figure punters will get should range between zero and one, but in order to make things simpler, it will be best if they convert it into percentages. In order to achieve this, they need to multiply the number by 100. In other words, the formula they need to use will look like this:
(1 / Odds) x 100 = Implied probability
Thus, if we assume that the odds for the Green Bay Packers to win a game are 1.20, the implied probability of this bet will be 83.3%.
(1 / 1.20) x 100 = 83.3%
In the event that NFL bettors prefer to use the fractional odds display, they will need to use the following formula:
Denominator / (denominator + numerator) x 100
While using American odds, NFL bettors can work out the implied probability of their bets using the following formula:
Negative America odds (negative American odds + 100) x 100
100 / (positive American odds +100) x 100
No matter which odds format NFL bettors prefer to use, they can rest assured that the implied probability they will get for their bet will invariably be the same. Another important thing gambling enthusiasts should not forget is that probability estimations will vary as odds shift when bets come in. Additionally, if punters want to use the services of several betting platforms, they might be required to work out the implied probability for each bookmaker which has covered the preferred event.
What Are True Odds
What many punters keep on wondering is how the house invariably wins. The explanation is pretty straightforward as the odds bookmakers introduce do not reflect the chances of an event occurring or not occurring accurately. What NFL bettors should remember is that the payoff odds contain the bookmaker’s built-in margin, which is to say that the payout they will snatch will always be smaller than what they would have collected if they had placed wagers at true odds.
Thus, if we suppose that punters want to place a bet on a game between the Los Angeles Rams and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and presume that the odds are 1.4 and 3.00, for example, the implied probability will be 71.43% and 33.33%, respectively. If they put together these probabilities, NFL bettors will get 104.76%, which exceeds the 100% threshold, which can be the ceiling when fair odds are used. The excess, which in our case is 4.76%, shows the bookmaker’s potential profit. In other words, the bookmaker will expect to take in $104.76 and pay out $100, no matter what the game outcome is.
Is Value Betting Profitable over the Long Run
We mentioned several times that NFL bettors can guarantee themselves a long-term profit, provided that they consistently find favorable betting opportunities. Let’s provide an example in order for punters to determine whether keeping their eyes wide open for bets that offer value is worth the time and the effort.
For the sake of simplicity, we will use a coin toss and assume that the odds a bookmaker has introduced are the same as the ones for the game between the Los Angeles Rams and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or 1.40 and 3.00, respectively. As NFL bettors know, the coin toss can have only two possible outcomes, which is to say that heads and tails each have a roughly 50% chance of coming up. Of course, this will only be the case if the coin toss is fair. In such an event the odds for each outcome should be 2.00, meaning that such a betting opportunity will not offer value. In fact, if punters consistently bet on these outcomes and the odds are 2.00, they will ultimately end up all square.
Because of this, we will presume that the odds for heads are 1.40, while the odds for tails coming up will be 3.00. If punters decide to stake $10 on heads, their potential payout will be $14. While staking $10 on tails will potentially result in a payout of $30. If we assume that betting on heads is what punters prefer, they should expect to get around 50 winning picks, which translates into potential returns of $700.
$14 (potential returns) x 50 (occasions on which punters will win) ₌ $700
Punters should not overlook the occasions on which they will lose either, and if they make wrong picks around 50% of the time, the amount they should expect to lose should be $500.
$10 (staked amount) x 50 (occasions on which punters will lose) ₌ $500
In this scenario, the profit NFL bettors should expect to get will be $200, but what they should also keep in mind is that they cannot have the full confidence that they will win or lose exactly 50% of the time. We used the example with the coin toss for reasons of clarity, and finding value while wagering on the NFL will be far more challenging. If they take betting on the NFL seriously and are keen on placing wagers on a regular basis, they should always keep their eyes wide open for opportunities with wrong odds as thus, their overall returns will be more lucrative.
When punters are looking for value, they should not exclude live betting as the prices are adjusted at all times, and finding mistakes will be much more likely when compared to pre-game bets.
Misconceptions about Value Betting
Whether value betting is beneficial or not is a question many NFL bettors ask themselves, especially after they consider the myths and misconceptions about it.
One of the most widespread misconceptions about value is that the bigger the odds are, the greater the value is. This cannot be further from the truth, and as we explained already, gambling enthusiasts should measure value as the difference between the way they see odds and the odds bookies have introduced. In spite of the fact that the potential returns of bets that have high odds will be considerably greater, such prices do not necessarily represent better value.
Another widespread misbelief about value is that such cannot be found in low odds. An essential thing NFL bettors should remember about value is that such can be found no matter how low or high odds are. Value betting is all about getting a price that is better than you think you should be entitled to, which is to say that if the odds the bookmaker has introduced are 1.15, while the price you have worked out is 1.10, for example, this still means that you have found a bet, which offers value. If punters go for such betting opportunities, they might not see their bankroll soar in the blink of an eye, but in this way, they guarantee themselves sustained winnings.
In order for gambling enthusiasts to get the most out of their betting session, they should focus on their long-term profit rather than paying attention exclusively to the returns a single bet will generate.
Contrary to what many NFL bettors consider, accumulator bets might also offer value. Even though many seasoned bettors consider that these multi-game bets are a mug’s game, this is not to say that you should completely exclude them from your betting portfolio. What you should remember about such bets is that the more selections you add to your accumulator bet, the lower your chances of actually winning will be. In order to find value in such bets, however, NFL bettors should make sure that each selection they add to their multi-game offers such, which is the most challenging part.
Tips for NFL Value Betting
Getting on grips with the topic of finding value is indeed essential, but if they want to increase their chances of enjoying a lucrative betting session, punters should also consider a few simple tips.
First and foremost, in order for NFL bettors to enhance their chances of making correct picks, they are advised to stick to what they know. No matter the sport punters want to bet on, they will be much more likely to find valuable betting opportunities if they know their way around as it will be easier for them to assess probability accurately.
The more factors NFL bettors take into consideration, the more likely they will be to assess probability. Gambling aficionados should remember that some variables matter more than others, but they should take their time to think about all factors that might change the course of the game and, therefore, impact the outcome of their bet.
In order for NFL bettors to ensure that their judgment will be unbiased, it is best to consider all the factors they have thought of before they take a look at the prices bookmakers have introduced. Since gambling enthusiasts will be less likely to make decisions that are influenced by what oddsmakers think about the game, their assessments will be more accurate.
Shopping around is a must for NFL bettors who are looking for betting opportunities that offer value. As punters already know, the odds bookies introduce might differ, and to get the most out of the wagers they make, it will be best to compare the prices at several betting platforms. No matter how insignificant the difference might seem, comparing the odds in order to find the most advantageous prices is a must, especially if long-term profit is what punters want to achieve. Naturally, while looking for the best odds, punters should make sure that the betting sites they visit are dependable and safe.
Overlooking heavy favorites is a mistake many NFL bettors tend to make simply because they think that very low odds do not offer value. As we explained already, this is not the case because big favorites are almost certain to win, which is to say that finding value is never excluded. Remember that actual odds are not what truly matters but how they measure up against probability. In fact, the best thing punters can do while looking for valuable betting opportunities is to focus more on probabilities rather than on favorites and underdogs.
Many punters tend to underestimate the significance of value or consider that looking for such betting opportunities is too time-consuming or challenging. It is true to say that finding markets that offer value takes time and effort but taking your time to improve your ability to make accurate assessments will undoubtedly pay off down the line.