Understanding what tennis betting odds are and what they denote is fundamental to every novice tennis bettor’s training. Essentially, betting odds manifest the likelihood of a particular outcome happening. Implied probability is another term that is also frequently used in this context. Determining the outcome of tennis matches depends on a variety of factors and getting as close to the real probability of winning as possible is quite challenging.
How Bookmakers Compile Their Odds?As in any other sport, tennis betting odds establish the potential winnings from a wager. The three main formats of tennis betting odds – Fractional, Decimal, and American, represent the same thing – how much punters stand to win from a certain wager.
Relying solely on luck for your tennis betting endeavors cannot possibly lead to consistent success and being able to read tennis odds is among the first things that novice bettors should focus on. Without proper knowledge of the subject, they will not be able to calculate payouts, estimate the implied probability, and find value markets. Although there are plenty of online tools that facilitate manual calculations, understanding the concept of odds and what they mean is of great significance.
What a successful tennis bettor should ultimately accomplish is learning to spot value in tennis betting markets and taking advantage of the opportunity. The current article aims to clarify the way odds are compiled, what they indicate, as well as the concepts of implied probability and value.
How Bookmakers Compile Their Odds?
Before we move on to an in-depth analysis of the three main betting odds formats, let us explain in brief the way odds are compiled. Generally, it is believed that odds represent the real probability of betting markets and in the majority of cases, this is true. Sports betting operators have special teams of odds-compiling specialists, who take into consideration a broad range of factors determining the probability of outcomes of tennis matches.
Since it is a process dependent on many variables and a final subjective decision, oddsmaking, and betting on tennis, in general, is not an exact science. Therefore, different sports betting operators offer varying odds for the same betting market. Overall, variations in odds are primarily due to three main reasons – a subjective opinion, a mistake, or a bookmaker’s business policy. Whatever the reason, punters should take advantage of such situations and spot the markets that offer value.
Some of the most important factors that bookmakers consider include head-to-head results, the different types of playing surfaces, and playing styles. As far tennis playing surfaces go, many tennis players have a preference for one over the others. Oftentimes, for example, great clay performers struggle to make an impact on grass courts.
Since the preference for a particular tennis surface is closely related to the playing style, both factors are intertwined and should be reviewed together. Head-to-head results, the weather conditions for open-air tournaments, and the current form of players are also under close examination in the process of odds compiling. Proper research of a forthcoming tennis match also includes the previous matches of opponents. The above-mentioned factors are only part of what thorough researches include, but basically, they can provide a good starting point.
Formats of Tennis Betting Odds
No matter if you prefer betting on the ATP, WTA, or the Grand Slam tournaments, distinguishing between the odds formats and calculating the payouts they represent, is of essential importance. With the great number of tennis matches played each year, it is advisable to focus on tournaments that you are familiar with. In the same way, focusing on markets and bet types you are confident about is also recommended. While some tennis bettors prefer to concentrate on handicap markets, others like to search for value in Totals markets.
As already mentioned, bookmakers tend to offer varying prices for the same tennis market. Therefore, creating accounts with several operators is strongly recommended, as it not only broadens punters’ range of tennis bet types to select from but also helps them find better value.
It is of paramount importance for every successful tennis punter to bet when there is value. For this purpose, understanding the three main formats is the first and most important step along the way. We are now going to turn our attention to the three main odds formats, as well as the associated formulas for calculating payouts and implied probability.
Decimal Odds Format
The Decimal odds format is widely spread across many European countries, Australia, Canada, and other parts of the world. As far as the calculation of payouts is concerned, the Decimal odds format is the most preferred and easiest to comprehend, especially when it comes to odds comparison.
| Wimbledon Men Singles Outrights | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennis Player | Decimal Odds | Payout Calculating Formula | Payout for a winning €100 stake | Implied Probability Formula | Decimal Odds Converted to implied Probability |
| Djokovic, Novak | 2.07 | Decimal Odds * Stake = Payout | 2.07 * 100 = €207.00 | Implied probability = 1 / decimal odds | 1 / 2.07=0.48=48% |
Let’s put things into perspective by delivering a suitable example. Novak Djokovic is assigned Decimal odds of 2.07 for winning the Wimbledon Men Singles Championship. This means that every €1 wagered would bring back a potential payout of €2.07 to punters. Thus, by making a €100 stake on this betting market, bettors stand a chance of winning a total return of €207.00, including the initial stake.
The formula to calculate the implied probability of the market is very easy to figure out. Bettors should simply take 1 and divide it by the Decimal odds offered by the bookmaker. In the specific case that we are referring to, the implied probability of the market stands at 48%.
It is important to note that the odds of 2.07 reflect a certain bookmaker’s expectation of Djokovic winning the grand tournament. Our personal assessment of the tennis player for winning Wimbledon may indicate a greater probability, which may ultimately prove to be a value betting opportunity.
Fractional Odds Format
Favored by British and Irish bookmakers, the Fractional odds format represents the ratio of the profit to the stake. So, in a fraction, the numerator represents the profit that punters can potentially make, while the denominator denotes the stake.
Let us take as an example another outright market from the Wimbledon Men Singles to illustrate the Fractional odds format, as well as the formulas for calculating payouts and implied probability.
| Wimbledon Men Singles Outrights | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennis Player | Fractional Odds | Payout Calculating Formula | Payout for a winning €100 stake | Implied Probability Formula | Fractional Odds Converted to implied Probability |
| Nadal, Rafael | 154/25 | ((Numerator/Denominator) +1) * stake = Payout | €716.00 | Implied Probability = denominator / (denominator + numerator) * 100 | 25 / (25+154)*100=0.139=13.96% |
The first number of the fraction from the table above (154), the numerator, indicates how much bettors will win if they wager the denominator (25). So, for every €25 wagered, they can make a potential profit of €154.
To calculate the payout from a €100 stake, bettors should divide the numerator by the denominator, add 1, and then multiply the result by the stake.
((154/25)+1) * 100 = €716.00
To convert Fractional odds to implied probability, bettors should simply divide the denominator by the sum of the denominator and the numerator, and multiply the result by 100.
American Odds Format
American odds are also referred to as US odds or moneyline odds. As their name suggests, they are mainly utilized by US bookmakers. This format could be represented by either negative or positive values. Depending on the sign preceding the numeric value (-200 or +200, for example), the odds show respectively the amount one needs to wager to win €100 and the amount one would win from a €100 stake.
| ATP Munich, Germany Men Singles Tabilo, Alejandro vs Garin, Cristian | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennis Player | American Odds | Payout Calculating Formula | Payout for a winning €100 stake | Implied Probability Formula | American Odds Converted to Implied Probability |
| Garin, Cristian | -138.39 | ((Stake*100)/Odds)+Stake = Payout | ((100*100)/138.39)+100=€172.25 | Negative moneyline odds / (Negative moneyline odds + 100) * 100 = implied probability | 138.39 / (138.39+100)*100=0.5805=58.05% |
| Tabilo, Alejandro | 105 | ((Stake * Odds) / 100) + Stake = Payout | ((100*105)/100)+100=€205 | 100 / (positive moneyline odds + 100) * 100 = implied probability | 100 / (105+100) * 100=0.4878=48.78% |
As indicated in the table, different formulas are needed to calculate potential payouts from negative and positive American odds. To work out your winnings for positive American odds, you should multiply your stake by the positive odds. The result should be divided by 100, and finally, the initial stake should be added. For negative American odds, payouts are figured out in the following manner: the stake should be multiplied by 100. The result should be divided by the odds, and finally, the initial stake should be added.
Converting American odds to implied probability is equally easy. Тwo different formulas are needed for negative and positive American odds. The calculations for converting negative American odds to implied probability require dividing the odds by the sum of the odds and 100 and then, multiplying the result by 100. To find out the implied probability of positive American odds, bettors should take 100, divide it by the sum of the odds and 100, and then, multiply the result by 100.
If you are overwhelmed by calculating tennis betting odds, the good news is there are lots of online tools for calculating payouts, conversion between the different formats, and conversion of odds to implied probability.
Identifying Tennis Value Bets
Developing and following a particular tennis betting strategy is of essential importance for every tennis betting aficionado. As we already mentioned, the fundamental rule applicable to all tennis systems and strategies is to always look for value. Variations in the odds offered by different sports betting operators may seem insignificant in the context of a single bet, but when we look at the bigger picture, finding value bets makes a great difference to your betting bankroll in the long run.
Essentially, finding a value bet is a situation where punters believe the outcome of a particular tennis match is more likely than what the offered odds suggest. If we take again as an example the odds assigned to Novak Djokovic (2.07), we may easily figure out that the implied probability of the market equals 48%. However, let us assume that we have done in-depth research on the player’s prospects for winning the Wimbledon Men’s Singles and we believe that the player has a 55% chance to emerge victorious in the prestigious tournament.
Tennis punters may use a simple formula to calculate the value of a particular market, once they have figured out their personal judgment regarding the chances of success:
Value = (Decimal Odds * Personal Assessed Probability) – 1
If we apply the above formula to our example, we should multiply the Decimal odds of 2.07 by our assessed probability of 55% and take out 1 from the result.
(2.07 * 0.55) – 1 = 0.138
If the final result is greater than 0, then we might have spotted a value betting opportunity. Given the odds of 2.07 and our assessed probability of 55%, we may conclude that there is a 13.8% value in the odds of 2.07 for Djokovic to win the Wimbledon tournament.
Making more accurate assessments of markets’ probability can be achieved after long practice, and, ultimately, it is the key to long-term success in tennis betting.
Conclusion
Tennis is a sport that has been widely favored by millions of fans around the world and as one might expect it lends itself perfectly to a great assortment of bet types. The three main types of tennis betting formats are interchangeable ways of representing the same thing and do not differ as far as payouts are concerned.
Picking a format to view odds is a matter of personal choice. No matter what your preferences are, having a good grip on the main types of betting formats is essential for placing bets intelligently. Furthermore, this knowledge is instrumental in calculating the implied probability, and ultimately, in identifying the tennis betting markets of good value.